Bleacher Report's Expert Week 13 NFL Picks (2024)

Bleacher Report's experts are thankful for another full slate of football on the week of Thanksgiving. It's a good spot to bounce back from their first sub-.500 week in a month.

B/R's panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski, and Maurice Moton, along with editors Wes O'Donnell, Ian Hanford, and Vince Michelino from B/R Betting Strategy, welcomed dogs to their Thanksgiving gathering and listened to them bark at the betting roundtable.

Before you toss around the pigskin in the yard, make sure you feed the dogs.

Pass the turkey, mashed potatoes, macaroni and cheese and the points. Our crew sided with seven underdogs, five of them on the road.

While that sounds bold, B/R's experts will make sense of it all with their analysis for Week 13 picks against the spread.

First, check out our leaderboard standings through Week 12. Last week's records are in parentheses.

ATS Standings

1. O'Donnell: 99-76-4 (5-8)

2. Hanford: 98-77-4 (8-5)

3. Knox: 93-82-4 (5-8)

T-4. Davenport: 92-83-4 (8-5)

T-4. Sobleski: 92-83-4 (6-7)

6. Michelino: 91-84-4 (10-3)

7. Moton: 88-87-4 (6-7)

8. Gagnon 85-90-4 (5-8)

Consensus picks: 79-67-2 (4-6)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Nov. 27, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

The Detroit Lions will host the Chicago Bears in their traditional early Thanksgiving Day game. While the oddsmakers provided a line suitable for how the Lions have feasted on their opponents recently, Detroit hasn't won a game on Thanksgiving since 2016, going 0-3 with quarterback Jared Goff.

However, anyone who lays points with Detroit will argue that this team is much different than the squads from years past.

They're right, but how many points are too much for this Lions team? Hanford says 10.5 points is too much.

"The Lions are one of the few teams, if not the only team, where double-digit spreads don't typically give me much pause, but this feels too rich. The Bears and Caleb Williams are playing better after firing Shane Waldron, and if not for a string of late-game drama (bad luck), they might have broken their five-game losing streak.

"I don't see Detroit losing this game, but this one feels like a backdoor cover as Chicago's pass defense makes enough plays, and Williams finds enough holes in a banged-up Detroit secondary to keep things competitive."

Predictions

Davenport: Lions

Gagnon: Bears

Hanford: Bears

Knox: Bears

Michelino: Lions

Moton: Bears

O'Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Bears

ATS Consensus: Bears +10.5

Score Prediction: Lions 29, Bears 20

New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito had an awful season debut start last week. His boxscore numbers (21-of-31 passing for 189 yards) don't fully illustrate his subpar performance. Big Blue couldn't get much done through the air until the second half. Rookie Malik Nabers complained about a lack of first-half targets.

To make matters worse, DeVito suffered a forearm injury to his throwing arm, which clouds his status for Thursday's game.

In a battle between division rivals with backup quarterbacks, this matchup may come down to a game-winning field goal.

O'Donnell initially took the points with Big Blue, but he quickly changed his mind when he examined some troubling trends for the Giants.

"Big Blue was initially the pick, but there are some disturbing, Texas-sized trends to sort through here," O'Donnell said.

"Take a look at this remarkable statistic: when the Giants play a football game, not on a Sunday, they are 2-22 SU since the start of the 2017 season. But wait for it...in Thursday games, the Giants are 0-9 SU (yea, the meaningful Eli Manning-led Giants was a long time ago now).

"Sure, the Cowboys have their own problems on Thanksgiving, with a 2-11 ATS record going back to 2011. However, they also own the 'rival' Giants, losing only once dating back to 2017.

"Laying four points comes with concerns, but the Cowboys have yet to win a game at Jerry World this year, and on the heels of that bonkers win a week ago, I'll say they keep one trend alive and buck the others—and that trend is beating up on the Giants."

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Gagnon: Cowboys

Hanford: Cowboys

Knox: Cowboys

Michelino: Giants

Moton: Giants

O'Donnell: Cowboys

Sobleski: Giants

ATS Consensus: Cowboys -4

Score Prediction: Cowboys 21, Giants 16

The Miami Dolphins have gone from a 2-6 squad with slim playoff hopes to a team on a hot streak, one spot out of the No. 7 seed in the AFC.

Over the last three weeks, the Dolphins have beaten the Los Angeles Rams in a sloppy Monday night game and outscored their last two opponents, the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots, 68-34.

Despite the Dolphins' impressive November run, Davenport expects Miami, a warm-weather club, to struggle in frosty Green Bay temperatures.

"Ah, the Thanksgiving night game—the contest that gets a massive rating because the last thing America does before lapsing into a food coma is click over to NBC because, football. The Dolphins have won three straight and put 34 on the board each of the last two games, and the spread here indicates a perception that this is essentially a toss-up—with the hook looming like the small half of the wishbone losers who never have wishes granted get.

"But the Packers are an 8-3 team coming off a dominant win playing at home in a game where the temperature will be in the 20s—with wind. Expect lots of Josh Jacobs—and a few porpoise-sicles."

Predictions

Davenport: Packers

Gagnon: Dolphins

Hanford: Dolphins

Knox: Dolphins

Michelino: Dolphins

Moton: Packers

O'Donnell: Packers

Sobleski: Dolphins

ATS Consensus: Dolphins +3.5

Score Prediction: Packers 24, Dolphins 21

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the league's best teams, but they have only beaten one team, the New Orleans Saints, by more than 10 points.

Oddsmakers priced this line correctly because of the disparity in talent between these clubs, but we could've said the same thing about the Chiefs' matchup with the Carolina Panthers last week. Carolina nearly pulled off an upset in that game, losing by a field goal as time expired in regulation.

Moton believes bettors should take the points in a matchup between an AFC powerhouse trying to remain steady until the playoffs and a scrappy Las Vegas Raiders squad still playing hard for its head coach, who may be on the hot seat.

"Your first thought may be the Chiefs throttle the Raiders at home as revenge for their upset loss on Christmas last year, but bettors should consider a different angle," Moton said.

"Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce is battling to keep his job. Even though the Raiders aren't likely to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City in consecutive seasons, they play hard enough to cover against a team that doesn't have a knockout punch in matchups with inferior opponents.

"The Raiders tend to make you sweat smaller points spreads; see their last drive in Week 12. They'll get the cover in this plus-12 spot."

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Gagnon: Raiders

Hanford: Chiefs

Knox: Raiders

Michelino: Raiders

Moton: Raiders

O'Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Raiders

ATS Consensus: Raiders +12

Score Prediction: Chiefs 26, Raiders 16

Many of us expected the Houston Texans to play far better than what we have seen them perform so far this season. Even with wideout Nico Collins back on the field, they lost to the Tennessee Titans, who came into last week's game with two wins.

On top of that, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has struggled with turnovers, throwing five interceptions over the last three weeks.

Bettors beware: Houston is 0-4 ATS in games against division rivals this season. In Week 4, the Jacksonville Jaguars covered a six-point spread in Houston.

Coming off a bye week, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson could unveil a few new offensive wrinkles that may keep the Texans guessing early in the game.

Gagnon couldn't ignore factors that favor the Jaguars in this spot. He expects the Texans to be in another tight battle with an AFC South opponent.

"The way the Texans have been playing, I can't possibly back them minus a handful of points in a road divisional matchup with a team that is still quite talented and has nothing to lose. This should at least be a close game as the Jags come off their bye at home."

Predictions

Davenport: Jaguars

Gagnon: Jaguars

Hanford: Texans

Knox: Jaguars

Michelino: Jaguars

Moton: Texans

O'Donnell: Texans

Sobleski: Texans

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Texans 28, Jaguars 23

The New York Jets had a noisy bye week. Since their last game, they have fired Joe Douglas, who was their general manager, and Aaron Rodgers has appeared on The Pat McAfee Show, talking about his uncertain future amid rampant speculation regarding owner Woody Johnson's desire to move on from him.

By the way, Gang Green has lost seven of its last eight games, and running back Breece Hall is questionable to play in this contest.

Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks lead the NFC West division after knocking off the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals following their Week 10 bye. They allowed just 23 points combined in those victories.

Moton believes the chatter away from the field will adversely impact the Jets on game day. He likes a dialed-in Seattle squad to win comfortably on the East Coast.

"Gang Green is a directionless team floundering coming out of a bye week. The Jets could be so consumed by the off-field headlines regarding 2025 that they may not be completely focused on their remaining 2024 games. Even when this squad felt the urgency to go on a run, it struggled on both sides of the ball.

"Typically, you worry about a west-coast team going east for an early kickoff, but the Seahawks defense has been stout as of late. In addition, D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are threats to score with big plays on any given down.

"Don't overthink this one. Take the team with fewer distractions and the momentum."

Predictions

Davenport: Seahawks

Gagnon: Jets

Hanford: Jets

Knox: Jets

Michelino: Jets

Moton: Seahawks

O'Donnell: Jets

Sobleski: Seahawks

ATS Consensus: Jets +2.5

Score Prediction: Jets 21, Seahawks 20

In the first half of the season, the Washington Commanders looked like a contender in the NFC, but that changed in November. They have lost three consecutive games, failing to cover in each one.

Last week, Washington suffered arguably its most alarming defeat of the season, a 34-26 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, whose struggling defense stifled quarterback Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense until the final two minutes of the contest.

Washington needs a get-right game with a strong performance before a Week 14 bye, but Knox can see the Tennessee Titans' No. 2 defense in total yards slowing down Daniels and Co. for the cover.

"I think the Commanders will stop their losing streak this week, but I'll take the Titans and the points here. Tennessee's defense is sneaky good, and its offense is starting to find a groove—at least, when Will Levis stops gifting early Christmas presents to the opposing team.

"Really, though, this is about Washington for me. Teams have caught up with Kliff Kingsbury's offense, and the defense feels flat-out exhausted at times. Late-season bye weeks are brutal, and I expect the Commanders to limp into theirs with a field-goal victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Commanders

Gagnon: Commanders

Hanford: Titans

Knox: Titans

Michelino: Commanders

Moton: Titans

O'Donnell: Commanders

Sobleski: Commanders

ATS Consensus: Commanders -5.5

Score Prediction: Commanders 26, Titans 20

The Arizona Cardinals lost some momentum on the other side of their Week 11 bye, losing 16-6 to the Seattle Seahawks on the road. They'll continue to travel and face one of the league's best squads.

The Minnesota Vikings squandered a 3.5-point cover last week, allowing the Chicago Bears to score 11 points in 22 seconds, but Davenport believes they can force the Cardinals offense to be one-dimensional like the Seahawks did last week with a stout run defense, which will allow them to win decisively.

"This pick should be sponsored by Kellogg's—because I went full-on blueberry Eggo on this one. It's a hard call—the Cardinals struggled to generate offense last week in Seattle, but six of Minnesota's nine wins are by single-digits this season. The notion of this coming down to a late field goal isn't far-fetched—especially given the leaky pass defense that will eventually get the Vikings bounced from the playoffs. Nevermind the possibility that Sam Darnold remembers he's Sam Darnold.

"Kevin O'Connell wakes up screaming, 'NO SAM!' four times a week.

"But with T.J. Hockenson back at tight end, the Minnesota offense is stacked, and the Vikings run defense is as good as any in the league. That should be enough for the home team to clear this number.

"Pass the syrup."

Predictions

Davenport: Vikings

Gagnon: Cardinals

Hanford: Cardinals

Knox: Cardinals

Michelino: Cardinals

Moton: Vikings

O'Donnell: Cardinals

Sobleski: Vikings

ATS Consensus: Cardinals +4

Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Cardinals 20

The Pittsburgh Steelers head back to Ohio for another AFC North battle. Last Thursday, they had a disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns in a game with heavy snow in the second half. While the skies should be clear for this contest, Pittsburgh will face the difficult task of crushing the Cincinnati Bengals' playoff hopes.

Despite their sub-.500 record, the Bengals are favored at home following a Week 12 bye, likely because of quarterback Joe Burrow's exceptional play. He's tied with Lamar Jackson for a league-leading 27 touchdown passes with only four interceptions.

Yet the Bengals defense hasn't helped Burrow and the offense. Cincinnati allows the fifth-most points leaguewide.

"Cincinnati's playoff hopes may be all but dashed, but beating a hated AFC North division rival is still worth playing for. While the Bengals aren't playing well overall this season, Joe Burrow is playing as well as any QB in the league and will put points on the board, which should make things difficult for a Steelers team that's struggled to finish drives the past few weeks.

"Both teams should come into this one rested, but Pittsburgh has lost its last seven AFC road games in December. Bengals by a field goal, and they finally win a one-score game."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Gagnon: Bengals

Hanford: Bengals

Knox: Bengals

Michelino: Steelers

Moton: Bengals

O'Donnell: Steelers

Sobleski: Steelers

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Steelers 23

The Indianapolis Colts offense doesn't have an identity. They field the 24th-ranked passing attack, and the unit has struggled to move the ball on the ground in recent weeks. In his last two outings, Jonathan Taylor recorded 35 carries for 92 scoreless yards.

Meanwhile, the New England Patriots are trying to build an offensive identity with rookie quarterback Drake Maye as the centerpiece. He has shown glimpses, but New England's offense has struggled to put points on the board in November, averaging a little more than 18 points for the month.

Our crew backed the Colts to break out of an offensive slump against a team that's allowed 62 points over the last two weeks, but Sobleski went against the consensus and made valid points in favor of the Patriots.

"The Patriots' biggest problem is less of one against the Colts. New England fields the worst cast of skill players the NFL has to offer," Sobleski said. "However, Drake Maye has shown he's more than capable of being a playmaker and creator for the team.

"Now, the talented rookie gets to play against the league's sixth-worst pass defense that tends to be simplistic in its approach. Unless Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley decides to be a little more aggressive than usual and throw a few wrinkles at this year's third overall draft pick, Maye could easily get the offense moving by taking what the defense allows on underneath options and keep the game close, if not outright win.

"None of that takes into account the erratic play of Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, but should be acknowledged."

Predictions

Davenport: Colts

Gagnon: Colts

Hanford: Colts

Knox: Colts

Michelino: Colts

Moton: Colts

O'Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Patriots

ATS Consensus: Colts -2.5

Score Prediction: Colts 22, Patriots 18

The Baltimore Ravens exposed the Los Angeles Chargers as a team with a low ceiling. After a slow start, the Ravens wore down the Chargers' run defense, racking up 212 rushing yards.

Even worse for the Chargers, they lost a physical presence in their ground attack. Running back J.K. Dobbins suffered a knee sprain and will miss this game, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

In addition, Chargers wide receivers Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer struggled to catch passes in the loss.

With all these issues in Los Angeles, Knox sided with the Atlanta Falcons, who should be well prepared for this contest coming off a bye week.

"I have zero interest in picking either of these teams against the spread. Both teams are good enough but not nearly as good as the records might indicate," Knox said.

"I have to pick one of them, though, and I'll go with the team coming off a bye. With cornerback Cam Hart out and after running back J.K. Dobbins exited, L.A. didn't look good on either side of the ball on Monday night. This would be a more competitive game if both were healthy, but that's not the case.

"I think injuries, a short week and a long trip will be too much for the Chargers to overcome."

Predictions

Davenport: Falcons

Gagnon: Falcons

Hanford: Falcons

Knox: Falcons

Michelino: Chargers

Moton: Chargers

O'Donnell: Falcons

Sobleski: Chargers

ATS Consensus: Falcons +2.5

Score Prediction: Falcons 28, Chargers 27

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers could play in one of the more entertaining offensive matchups this week.

The Buccaneers field the fourth-ranked scoring offense with a balanced unit that features a top-10 aerial and ground attack.

However, Tampa Bay has a leaky pass defense that allows the fourth-most yards.

Though New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito struggled to move the ball on the Buccaneers, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young could have more success. Remember, Carolina head coach Dave Canales is familiar with Mayfield and Tampa Bay's defense. He served as the Buccaneers' offensive coordinator in 2023.

Michelino is buying into Young's recent improvement, and the Panthers' ability to keep pace with the Buccaneers on the scoreboard.

"The resurgent Panthers have proved in recent weeks they're no pushover. Fresh off a two-game winning streak, they gave the Chiefs all they could handle and almost pulled off the upset as 11.5-point underdogs. Bryce Young is developing before our very eyes, validating his early season benching, and suddenly, the Panthers look formidable.

"While the Bucs can certainly feast on Carolina's bottom-ranked defense, with Mike Evans back healthy and Bucky Irving ascending to RB stardom, my lean here is with the momentum.

"It might be Fool's Gold, but the Panthers have covered the spread in three straight games and I can't pass up on getting this many points in a division matchup. Keep pounding! (please)."

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Gagnon: Panthers

Hanford: Buccaneers

Knox: Buccaneers

Michelino: Panthers

Moton: Panthers

O'Donnell: Buccaneers

Sobleski: Panthers

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 33, Panthers 28

The Los Angeles Rams have been the NFL model for inconsistency. They lost four of their first five games–with key injuries–won three straight and then lost two of their last three outings.

The Rams aren't on the same tier as the league's best teams. They lost by three scores to the Philadelphia Eagles at home on the prime-time Sunday Night Football stage.

This week, the Rams will face the New Orleans Saints, a team that's regained some of its mojo after firing Dennis Allen, who was their head coach. The Saints won back-to-back games before their Week 12 bye.

Most of our experts backed the Rams to cover a thin spread, though Gagnon has concerns about Los Angeles facing a rejuvenated and refreshed Saints squad.

"Recent home losses to the Dolphins and Eagles have probably taken the wind out of the Rams' sails. There will be no late charge in 2024 for a team that just doesn't have the ingredients, and now they run into the desperate and feisty Saints, who are at home and have had two weeks to prepare. I'll take those points all day."

Predictions

Davenport: Rams

Gagnon: Saints

Hanford: Rams

Knox: Saints

Michelino: Rams

Moton: Rams

O'Donnell: Rams

Sobleski: Rams

ATS Consensus: Rams -2

Score Prediction: Rams 30, Saints 21

In a marquee matchup that features two of the league's top rushers, Baltimore Ravens' Derrick Henry and Philadelphia Eagles' Saquon Barkley could produce multiple highlights.

Early in the week, Henry racked up 140 yards on the ground, and Barkley finished the Eagles' last game with video game-like numbers, accumulating 302 scrimmage yards and scoring two touchdowns.

Even though all eyes will be on the running backs, bettors should keep an eye on Baltimore's 31st-ranked pass defense. The Los Angeles Chargers wide receivers squandered opportunities to exploit the Ravens' secondary because of drops, but A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (if healthy) should be able to capitalize on lapses in coverage.

Michelino backed the Eagles to outscore the Ravens in a must-see matchup.

"In a matchup featuring two leading MVP candidates, the league's top two rushing leaders and two generational dual-threat QBs, it's fair to wonder if this is actually the preview for Super Bowl LIX," Michelino said.

"The Eagles look like the lone NFC team that can challenge Detroit, thanks to a balanced roster, elite game-wrecking pass rush and Saquon Barkley's historic rushing pace. They'll catch Baltimore at perhaps the right time on a short week.

"These Ravens are explosive, but they're also vulnerable in the secondary. If the Eagles are who they've shown us to be, I think they win straight up and their Super Bowl bandwagon grows."

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Ravens

Hanford: Eagles

Knox: Eagles

Michelino: Eagles

Moton: Ravens

O'Donnell: Ravens

Sobleski: Eagles

ATS Consensus: Eagles +2.5

Score Prediction: Eagles 26, Ravens 24

As bettors know from last week, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is the name to watch on the injury report. He missed the previous outing, and as anyone would expect, the 49ers offense struggled mightily without him.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters that Purdy got some "light throwing" in on Monday.

Despite the positive update on Purdy, remember he logged a couple of limited practices before the team ruled him out for last Sunday's game.

O'Donnell isn't going to take a risk with Purdy's banged-up shoulder. He sided with the Bills to win their third consecutive game by at least seven points.

"Last week, I rolled the dice on San Francisco expecting (hoping?) Brock Purdy to be on the field and got burned," O'Donnell said. "Two MRIs and a sassy Kyle Shanahan response to inquiries on Purdy's status later and making this pick on a Wednesday—no, I won't be burned again.

"Fortunately, and as highly as I typically think of San Francisco, I don't have to wring my hands too long with the Bills on the other sideline. Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in five straight games—all wins (and 4-1 ATS)—and while some may sense a letdown coming after beating the Chiefs, the Bills have two tough road games on the other side of this two-game homestand. They cannot afford to slack here.

"Josh Allen could very well run away with this game, but a late turnover preventing the Niners from closing to within one score sounds like a solid backup plan, too."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: 49ers

Michelino: Bills

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Bills

ATS Consensus: Bills -6.5

Score Prediction: Bills 27, 49ers 19

The Denver Broncos have the second-best record ATS (9-3), and they outscored their last two opponents, the Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders, 67-25.

One of the positive surprises of the season, the Broncos are a strong favorite against the three-win Cleveland Browns.

Cleveland has already won more games (two) with quarterback Jameis Winston than with Deshaun Watson (one) under center.

With Winston at the helm, the Browns are a turnover-prone team, but because of his aggressive passing tendencies, they're also capable of covering spreads.

Nonetheless, our panel came to its only unanimous decision on the Week 13 slate in favor of the Broncos. Sobleski believes Winston will make crucial mistakes in a loss by at least a touchdown.

"The Browns offense isn't constructed to handle the Broncos defense. Denver is currently ranked third in total and scoring defense. More importantly, Vance Joseph is among the league's most aggressive and successful at harassing opposing quarterbacks. The Broncos currently lead the NFL with 44 total sacks. The group will almost certainly force quarterback Jameis Winston into mistakes, which he's prone to do anyway.

"Cleveland's wide receivers aren't a huge threat to Denver's secondary. If the Browns feel they can lean on a re-emerging Nick Chubb, the Broncos also field a top-six run defense. As long as rookie Bo Nix continues to play like he has for Sean Payton, Denver is clearly the better team."

Predictions

Davenport: Broncos

Gagnon: Broncos

Hanford: Broncos

Knox: Broncos

Michelino: Broncos

Moton: Broncos

O'Donnell: Broncos

Sobleski: Broncos

ATS Consensus: Broncos -5.5

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Browns 17

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